Optimism & Caution Wrap Up 2024

Anything could have happened in 2024. The uncertainties were immense:

  • Outcome of the US Presidential election
  • Trajectory of US interest rates and inflation
  • At least two active wars with an element of US involvement
  • Trajectory of US stocks in this environment
  • The US Fed’s interest rate policy (did I say interest rates twice?)
  • Numerous other personal and world economic and social events.

The results – to date – in several of these categories have been positive or on-the-way-to-becoming-positive.

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The Election/Markets Waiting Game

This week in a conversation with one of my favorite people, I discovered – or confirmed – something that was already obvious: the US Presidential election has nearly everyone on edge. There are varying degrees of “on edge” including,

  • overwhelmed
  • nervous
  • confused
  • curious
  • angry
  • discouraged
  • (fill in the blank).

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Interest Rate Changes Amidst Election Seasons

The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, and the US Federal Reserve are between a rock and a hard place.

There is far too much that can be said on the topics of where interest rates should be and the timing of when interest rates will be adjusted (most likely lower in the near future). To sum it up: politics, political opinions and political pundits – not to mention political candidates of both parties – have now entered the picture, clouding the views of regular people on the street even smarter investors attuned to the finer points of stock and bond markets.

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Elections, Debates & Markets

As this edition of TGIF 2 Minutes was written prior to the first US Presidential debate, one piece of the “proof” will already be in the pudding for readers post-debate on Friday morning. Though not much should matter to markets related to the debate.

For the sake of thought and discussion elections can matter to stock and bond markets in the short- to intermediate-term. Debates – and State of the Union speeches – may (and may not) matter in the short-term as well. Big-picture policies like taxes, healthcare (drug prices and insurance coverage), social security, Medicare policy, government spending and more… these are all mentioned in presidential debates and speeches.

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