With this week’s fast and furious weakness in US and global stock markets – primarily based on spread of the Coronavirus – the next “shoe to fall” likely will be slower short-term economic growth in parts of the US and definitely longer, more pronounced slow-downs in China. These types of slowdowns do happen as a part of market cycles. This situation also got me to thinking about how economic slowdowns, often over decades, have benefited beer and alcohol sales.
Originally titled, “Gut Check in Rocky Markets” but with a new twist the following excerpted edition from the archives of TGIF 2 Minutes is timely on (Not So) Fat Tuesday. Please keep in mind three new factors:
The political divide currently in the US is adding to market tensions and even politicizing the Coronavirus,
Primary Elections and Debates and the policy issues being brought forth are next-to-center stage in the media,
A still very recent UP 29% equity market in 2019,
and there exist the makings of a potential market correction. A market correction is defined as a decline of 10% from a recent high; the US equity markets are down over 6% in two days and are nearing an official “market correction” in 2020.
At February 21st, while the year is still young… the time is perfect for reviewing or setting goals for this year and the years and months to come. No pressure. The holidays are in the past and the deadline for filing 2019 taxes is still a bit in the distance – for now!
At this somewhat perfect time of the year, goal setting can pay off in a big way toward achieving those goals. Often goal setting is difficult to start with a blank sheet of paper so here are a few tidbits to create momentum:
Exogenous Threats. These types of threats or risk factors come from an external place and affect markets – unexpectedly. Already in 2020, only 38 days into the year, the US and global markets have been presented with at least three major exogenous threats:
Brexit becoming abruptly final
A US Impeachment trial
A viral epidemic, the unnamed Coronavirus in China (and now spreading to other countries too)
(Bonus 4th threat) US-China and US-World trade policy