The markets are telling us that the Coronavirus situation and the aftermath of an economic slowdown is likely not going away any time soon. The evidence is in the “indiscriminate selling” of nearly every asset class:
A couple of points of perspective to this very hectic open to the US stock markets:
- There are comparisons today and the past two weeks to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The US stock markets were most volatile n Fridays and Mondays throughout late 2008 with financial institution failures that took place over or near weekends – Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers…and then Merrill Lynch.
With this week’s fast and furious weakness in US and global stock markets – primarily based on spread of the Coronavirus – the next “shoe to fall” likely will be slower short-term economic growth in parts of the US and definitely longer, more pronounced slow-downs in China. These types of slowdowns do happen as a part of market cycles. This situation also got me to thinking about how economic slowdowns, often over decades, have benefited beer and alcohol sales.
Originally titled, “Gut Check in Rocky Markets” but with a new twist the following excerpted edition from the archives of TGIF 2 Minutes is timely on (Not So) Fat Tuesday. Please keep in mind three new factors:
- The political divide currently in the US is adding to market tensions and even politicizing the Coronavirus,
- Primary Elections and Debates and the policy issues being brought forth are next-to-center stage in the media,
- A still very recent UP 29% equity market in 2019,
and there exist the makings of a potential market correction. A market correction is defined as a decline of 10% from a recent high; the US equity markets are down over 6% in two days and are nearing an official “market correction” in 2020.
From the archives of TGIF 2 Minutes comes a very handy message – one that still holds true 5 years later:
Have you asked yourself lately…
- “Is this the ‘Big Dip’ in the markets they have warned about?”
- “Should I be selling my stocks?”
- “Should I be selling my bonds?”
Although I stress to clients and friends NOT to listen to the Talking Heads on TV, radio & internet amidst dramatic market moves —and then make rash investment decisions – we are human! It is nearly impossible to ignore completely what is going on daily in the news and markets. And the stock markets have crept down a bit over the past few weeks. (Note, in 2019 the downturns and recoveries have been often.) Continue reading “Gut Check (Again) In Rocky Markets”
Where do we stand going into the Year Ahead?
It is always helpful to define where stand today and understand a few points about how we got here. So as a sequel to my last post, here are a handful of data points about today’s economy and market stats from the recent past. Several of these may surprise you.
Good morning on a Saturday,
And not just any Saturday. The Saturday just 3 days before Christmas! And, the Saturday following a week of sharp stock market declines and abrupt political events. In fact, a Saturday capping off an entire year of unfamiliar volatility and weakness in the stock market.
I took an extra day this week (TGIF +1) to check the path of stock markets year-to-date to present perspective and a few encouraging thoughts: Continue reading “Perspective & Thoughts at the End of a Volatile Year”