From the 2022 Archives of TGIF 2 Minutes with a few updates…
Record-breaking, big outlier events tend to move the needle to extremes in the economy and stock market. Note the word, “outlier”. Outlier events typically are surprises and are often unlikely. In his beyond excellent book The Psychology of Money* author Morgan Housel lists five events that were outliers over history in the US with world-changing consequences:
The Great Depression
World War II
The dot-com bubble
The housing crash of the mid-2000’s.
A conclusion could be drawn from the book’s chapter titled, “Surprise!” that surprises are perhaps the most reliable thing going. But the irony of the reliability of surprises is we do not know what the surprise is until after it has unfolded.
The question, “Why save and invest?” is one not emphasized nearly enough. Often, savers and investors – whether having accumulated millions of dollars or those just getting started – focus almost exclusively on the various investments themselves, without first and often taking a step back to establish the “WHY” of investing.
The WHY can vary greatly, which is the reason the question is so meaningful.
Just this week I heard about the show currently on Netflix called “How to Get Rich” (haha, I may have just lost a few readers who will jump to find out more about the show). But it is not the show that is the focus of this week’s edition of TGIF 2 Minutes but rather one of the ideas behind the show. The idea comes from the author and successful entrepreneur, Ramit Sethi. One of the key ideas Sethi emphasizes is the “rich life” we all may wish to attain.
What is in store for 2023? Is the stock market overvalued? In answer to the second question: perhaps yes, perhaps no. When most people ask, “Is the market overvalued or undervalued?” what they really are asking is, “Where is the market going next?”
Of course, no one knows for sure. But a bit of historical data can offer information for comparison. Below (top) is a chart showing how over-priced US growth stocks (yellow-ish line) have been over 100 years and how over-priced US value stocks (greenish-blue line) have been over the same period. It would seem that growth stocks are still over-valued. But look at the period for growth stocks between 1974 (the last time inflation was as high as it is today) and 1998. Can you say that it was obvious in 1992 that growth stocks were overvalued? Probably not.
Fast forward to 2023. What could happen next? See the bottom chart for more data.
Will the US officially enter a recession? If so, how bad, and how long will it be?
Will there be more bankruptcies related to cryptocurrencies and trading?
What will become of the unbalanced employment situation?
The list can go on and on. For as long as most experienced investors reading this post can recall, there have always been questions that economists (similar to the weatherman/woman) attempt to answer. Readers and investors who are newer or younger can learn over time that questions regarding the economy and government/fiscal policy are what make markets operate. Everyone is entitled to her or his opinion, especially in investing:
Long walks and successful long term financial & life goal setting go hand in hand. Lots of people have zero interest in long walks but even a walk to the mailbox can turn into a long walk – so stay with me here. A recent, rather long walk on the Camino de Santiago in northern Spain (pictured) taught me life-changing lessons about goal setting. Namely,
There is no truly right or wrong way to formulate financial or life goals. Yes, goal setting is easier when pen & paper are involved, but the process is more about quality of thought (meaning being honest and open with oneself) than any set of “rules.”
There need not be a rush to set financial, business or life goals. Although starting sooner rather than later can help – and momentum will develop on its own. The list of goals may then turn out longer and more exciting than ever imagined! (Dreams can become goals too.)
Accomplishing goals in a quality way becomes a series of decisions made along the way – seemingly small decisions and larger, more serious-feeling decisions.
As the country and our world emerge from the battering of the pandemic, the Russian aggression in the Ukraine has now added a different, far-away, uncontrollable stress on our minds. Not to mention the markets’ reaction and inflation, although markets naturally experience up & down cycles. In light of all this, one of my best – and as it turns out most insightful – clients sounded in on the following:
Now more than ever, our health and survival in the short- and long-term depend on Self-Care. (I would add that self-care includes having personal finances somewhere near “in order”.)
Realize, though, the financial stability part can only come about after the self-care part is addressed.
Before deleting this message, please read on… to Part One of this edition of TGIF 2 Minutes.
With inspiration from the Archives of TGIF 2 Minutes… and in light of graduation season, it can be beneficial to celebrate the basics of personal finance for future peace of mind – both for ourselves and the kids, grandkids, nieces, and nephews who mean the most to us.
College graduation may have been a long, long time ago or more recently – and experienced from the perspective of a parent, grandparent, or friend.
Inspired by last weekend’s graduation at the University of Notre Dame and “graduation season” in general, consider these pieces of financial advice that hold meaning for nearly everyone at every age:
The real title this week is, “Selling Real Estate in a White-Hot Market”.
Future topics include:
Real Estate (in general) in a White-Hot Market
How to Handle Real Estate as an Asset in Any Market
Renting versus Buying in a White-Hot Real Estate Market
ALL of these topics have come up in conversations with friends and clients over the past year, even more so in the past five months. There is no question that real estate – especially around major cities like New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Raleigh/Durham, and Atlanta – is sizzling hot. Even cities such as Atlanta where there are residential areas inside of a sprawling city, those “suburban feel” areas are also on fire.
The question of whether or when tax rates may go higher is one asked after many a US Presidential election. The actuality of taxes going up is altogether another issue with its own timing depending on the President, party and Congress involved. There can be signals of both higher and lower taxes that certain candidates and Presidents communicate to win friends (and elections) and influence people.
In fact, in reading this week the obituary of Walter Mondale it seems that his transparent insistency on a proposal to raise taxes in his mid-1980’s US Presidential bid was a major factor behind his losing the election to Ronald Reagan (Reagan’s 2nd term run). That was then, this is now. One could say that now President Biden ran on a platform to raise taxes – in part winning him the election. Taxes and tax plans may always be part of US elections as they say the only things certain in life are death and taxes.
A couple of weeks back the topic was PCL, or Post-Career Lifestyle. I received more comments than usual from people of all ages – and a number of cool ideas on how to look at the “nonretirement” concept of saving today in order to do what you love tomorrow. “Doing what you love” in a post-career lifestyle can include continuing to work for pay, slowing down and enjoying a “side gig” or truly retiring and ending working altogether.
Another excellent factoid revealed was that women and men tend to look at retirement and post-career lifestyle differently. Women also have a lot more to say about their attitude toward saving (whether for PCL or retirement) and managing the savings habits of their families. This translates into a concept best described by the acronym, WRW*, or Women Rule the World.
Now before the men reading this say, “Wait a minute!” a couple of notes of clarification.