Checking in on New Year’s Resolutions

It may be a key time – before mid-year – to check in on goals made back in January. These goals could have focused on saving more or differently, spending reduction or realignment and areas of investment focus and diversification.

How is your progress on certain goals? Can tweaks be made? Can specific ones be scrapped and new goals or ideas formed?

One particular goal from January was something I nicknamed FSP:

“Focus on Saving in order to maintain Patience” – in the event of the inevitable market decline, or volatility similar to that of 2025.

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Recession or Not?

Check out two really good slides.

The first slide outlines the vast difference of when a recession really occurs and markets anticipate the recession and react, versus when the government (the NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research) “declares” a recession.

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Refreshing Perspective

Please see the simple graphics and detail above for reasons why a globally diversified portfolio has outperformed despite recent (and in several cases, major) declines in the “Magnificent 7”. The article sites three charts. TGIF 2 Minutes chose two of the three.

In addition to these data points, there are still more reasons to keep faith in a well-laid out long-term strategy that takes into account more than solely the large growth area of the stock market.

This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, tax, legal or accounting advice.

Are Markets Ready for Tariffs?

Part of me needs to admit that today’s title was an attention grabber. The deeper questions are:

  • Are investors ready for volatility?
  • Are investor expectations ready for a test of high stock valuations?
  • As always, do investors have enough cash for spending priorities and wishes?
  • Are investors ready to take advantage of any coming volatility with savings strategies (think: being able to continue regular contributions to savings & investments, 401k plans and IRA accounts)?

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Beyond the Magnificent Seven

It’s summer and it’s HOT. Today’s will be a short and sweet edition of TGIF 2 Minutes.

The title for today was almost simply, “Beyond the Magnificent”. But a quick note on the Magnificent Seven is in order.

The seven companies are, of course, Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. This week – and the past several weeks – have seen volatility and shifts of short-term leadership in the stock markets from the Magnificent Seven growth companies to smaller and more value-oriented ones.

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Does A Portfolio Need Alternatives?

There are a number of ways to answer this question and the topic requires more than two minutes, so please look for follow-up and further information on the topic of alternative investments from TGIF 2 Minutes.

For starters, the key word in the question, “Does a portfolio need alternatives?” is need. And for reference, alternatives investments are often nicknamed “Alts” in conversations. Finally, “alternative investments” is a name mainly given by the financial services industry for:

  • non-public investments
  • private equity, private debt, and private real estate
  • venture capital (VC)
  • hedge funds
  • and a whole host of other longer-term, less liquid and illiquid investments.

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Greatest Chart Ever… Even Better

Long-time TGIF 2 Minutes readers know that “The Greatest Chart Ever” truly is a great chart* with data illustrating reasons to invest – and stay invested – in stocks for the short-, intermediate- and especially the long-term. The chart focuses on US stocks, namely the S&P 500, and lends to globally diversified stock investing as well.

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The Mega-Cap 7 or 8

There is a narrowness to the US stock market’s “strength” so far in 2023 that warrants attention. Out of the five hundred US companies in the S&P 500 index, if not for seven of them (or eight, if Netflix is included) the index would be down for the year.

These seven or eight companies are all mega-capitalization technology companies: Nvidia (whose chips are currently fueling white-hot artificial intelligence), AppleMicrosoftAmazonMeta (formerly Facebook), Alphabet (parent of Google), Tesla, and the 8th is Netflix (arguably as large and hot as the rest).

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What’s Going On in the Markets?

It may be time to diversify – if that was not already the name of your game.

When is the last time that BONDS, no less the 10-year Treasury and TIPS, were the information we sought to read before we checked TSLA and AAPL??

Yes, when stock markets get rocky it is wise to look to the bond market, interest rates and the Fed for answers. Here is a less than 2-minute primer on several terms that matter. Oh, and my bond expert and bond trader friends will smile at the following statement: Everyone knows the “bond gals and guys” are smarter than the “equity gals and guys.” (PS. I started out as an equity gal.)

When stock markets get rocky it is wise to look to the bond market, interest rates and the Fed for answers.

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The SoftBank “Secret”

By now, most investors know that in late February of this year through mid-March the stock markets kind of crashed. It was a matter of 31 days from February 20th to March 23rd….not that I had to look that up or anything.

It was swift and ugly. And then, the stock markets both suddenly and slowly recovered, hitting it big in April and then gradually reaching new all-time records by September. Hmmmm… how does that work? Is it “free markets”? More buyers than sellers? Individuals throwing money at stocks?

SoftBank reported $4 billion of options trades representing $50 billion of underlying value in the same handful of technology stocks in the US.

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