Weekend Edition – Markets’ Response to Crisis

As we all “shelter in place” and our kids are in “cyber school” we take in news both of the day and of the bigger picture. Here are several personal financial-related cautionary thoughts and a quick graphic (see below). People way smarter than I say that data is key to decision-making and the ability to stick with a plan in crisis situations.

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Will There Be A Recession?

The past several weeks has seen the first pandemic in the era of social media. The last H1N1 Influenza pandemic was in 2009. In 2009, Facebook was young (founded 2004) and Twitter was in its infancy (founded 2006).

In addition to a handful of other major factors, the Covid-19 coronavirus is descending on the planet during: a US Presidential election year, a high-level fight over oil between the Saudis and Russia AND immediately following an almost 11-year UP stock market in the US.

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Is a Recession Coming?

Make no mistake: The media wants a recession.

How many of these items have you been bombarded about lately?

  • Inverted yield curve
  • Negative bond yields
  • Trade and Currency wars
  • “Fed Chairman Powell lacks clarity in his Q&A sessions” (talk about the ultimate throw under the bus)

A recession may or may not be coming soon. Recessions have been part of the US and global economies since the dawn of recording market data which dates to the 1920’s (with recessions dating back to the 1800’s).  Please see the accompanying chart that summarizes various scary events since 1970, several of which led to nasty recessions. Remember the Arab oil embargo?? The Dotcom bust?? Please also note the way the US stock market – which is based on a free market economy and the consumer – has recovered over time. Continue reading “Is a Recession Coming?”