Looking Ahead in 2022

One thing is certain: numerous predictions about 2020 and 2021 in categories ranging, from the emergence of a pandemic, to continuance of the pandemic, how best to cure the pandemic, to rates of inflation, supply and demand in the economy, to the ability of technology to make accurate predictions… were wrong.

Possibly the largest factor affecting the US economy today, inflation, was not even on the list of biggest risks at the 2021 World Economic Forum.* This is not to poke fun at the predictors but rather an indication of how misguided predictions about risk can be.

Numerous predictions about 2020 and 2021 were wrong.

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Markets Prefer Certainty

Amidst the continuous stream of news and recent market fluctuations, a dash of certainty was injected into stocks and bonds with this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. If only for a day.

Several factors are at work –

  • interest rates, per the US Fed
  • future government spending policy
  • rates of employment
  • market valuations

among other factors.

A dash of certainty was injected into stocks and bonds with this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. If only for a day.

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Looking Ahead to What’s to Come

As we approach the end of an extremely weird and difficult year, no doubt what is on lots of people’s minds: What is to come in the months and year immediately ahead?

From an economic and financial standpoint, a great deal depends on several factors very well summed up in a recent The Wall Street Journal article.*

In order to gauge how early 2021 will look, we need to understand:

  • How bad this latest surge in coronavirus cases might get?
  • What measures people and state and local governments take and the resulting effects on spending?
  • How much relief will come from the federal government?
  • How much better things will look toward the end of 1Q 2021?
As we approach the end of an extremely weird and difficult year, no doubt what is on lots of people’s minds: What is to come in the months and year immediately ahead?

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“What Ifs” of 2020 and Beyond

After a year – really a decade – of excellent returns in the stock market, and for 2019 in the stock AND bond markets, it makes sense to ask, “WHAT IF?” As in, what if certain events take place in the markets or economy that could spoil the last several years of positive portfolio returns? Naturally then, there would be a handful of guesses or responses to the “what if” questions.

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What if certain events take place in the markets or economy that could spoil the last several years of positive portfolio returns?

Continue reading ““What Ifs” of 2020 and Beyond”