As pockets of US East Coasters sit working and waiting out the nearly inevitable temporary loss of power due to Hurricane Dorian, I cannot help but partially relate this “wait” to a comment made recently by one of the Federal Reserve Bank Presidents. Back in August Robert Kaplan said the following about US trade policy and the markets,
“When you have this amount of uncertainty and this frequency of changes, my reaction as a businessperson is not to speed up – it’s actually a little bit to slow down the cadence of it and maybe take a little bit more time.”* Continue reading “Waiting Out the Storm (Not Dorian)”
How many of these items have you been bombarded about lately?
Inverted yield curve
Negative bond yields
Trade and Currency wars
“Fed Chairman Powell lacks clarity in his Q&A sessions” (talk about the ultimate throw under the bus)
A recession may or may not be coming soon. Recessions have been part of the US and global economies since the dawn of recording market data which dates to the 1920’s (with recessions dating back to the 1800’s). Please see the accompanying chart that summarizes various scary events since 1970, several of which led to nasty recessions. Remember the Arab oil embargo?? The Dotcom bust?? Please also note the way the US stock market – which is based on a free market economy and the consumer – has recovered over time. Continue reading “Is a Recession Coming?”
“Is this the ‘Big Dip’ in the markets they have warned about?”
“Should I be selling my stocks?”
“Should I be selling my bonds?”
Although I stress to clients and friends NOT to listen to the Talking Heads on TV, radio & internet amidst dramatic market moves —and then make rash investment decisions – we are human! It is nearly impossible to ignore completely what is going on daily in the news and markets. And the stock markets have crept down a bit over the past few weeks. (Note, in 2019 the downturns and recoveries have been often.)Continue reading “Gut Check (Again) In Rocky Markets”
Does it seem to you that with the stock market rebound since late December that you feel “good” or “better” today than you felt in early January?
If you DO feel good, that “good” feeling today may not be as strong as the “pain” you felt in January following December’s big decline.
If you do NOT feel “good” or “better” today, is it attributable to the markets? (Unlikely) A job or the economy? Family? The political environment?
The reason I ask is that good and bad feelings – especially related to the stock markets – come and go. However, extensive research* says that “bad” or “painful” times are felt more strongly than “good” times. Maybe good is boring but I would rather have good than bad.Continue reading “Is Good Boring?”
“10th Anniversary of what?” you may ask. Well, it appears you are not the only one in a state of ignorant bliss – no offense intended! I thought it may have been a bigger deal in the news, but very little has been written or reported about this 10-year milestone.
Newsflash: Things are (mostly) GOOD in the economy, businesses and peoples’ financial lives in the US these days. Don’t take my word for it. Just this week The Wall Street Journal ran an article leading with: “The job market doesn’t get much better than this.”* The title of the article was, “Inside the Hottest Job Market in Half a Century.” Wages on average in the US are rising modestly after “long-term stagnation” (their words not mine), and unemployment is the lowest in 50 years – with women experiencing some of the greatest gains in workforce participation.
BUT – it was 10 years ago this weekend on March 9, 2009 that the US stock market hit its low, with the S&P 500 index ominously touching 666, only to settle around 2750 this week. Ten years ago, the US (and global) economy was in “The Great Recession” and it was ugly. But then, yes, the S&P 500 took its time and has risen in value over four (4) times in roughly 10 years. There have been a few bumps – amidst higher interest rates – but stocks in the US and globally are materially higher which has created and grown wealth along the way. Continue reading “Happy 10th Anniversary?”
Even if you listen only to the first 60 seconds you will get the message. Therein is about 10 seconds of a crazed voice you may have heard on TV of a host shouting stock picks –but then you will be rewarded in the final 30 seconds when you may want to play the video over and over for a bit of “peace.” Turn up the volume, follow the bouncing dot and read along.
These are not times for the faint of heart. Almost every day we have been battered with news of geopolitical challenges, tariffs, Federal government partial shut-downs, Brexits, Federal Reserve policy changes, polar vortexes… all amidst new all-time highs for stocks accompanied by the worst December for the S&P since 1931.