The Psychology of Interest Rates

Dedicated readers of TGIF 2 Minutes will recall highlights two weeks ago of Morgan Housel’s excellent book, The Psychology of Money. Digging deeper into the book revealed the theme that human nature and psychology most often lead people to hear – and believe – only what they want to hear and believe or see happen.

This statement is not an insult or meant to sound arrogant. Rather, in matters of money, financial markets and even the economy there is evidence that people, the more they want something to be true, most often will believe a story that overestimates the odds of the story being true.* The markets, following recent comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, nudged UP on thoughts the Fed might “pivot” (meaning: possibly slow the pace of interest rate increases and even lower interest rates next year – a wishful “story”). But more recent moves down in markets reflect the less popular belief that the US Federal Reserve likely will NOT reverse course, thus continuing to raise interest rates until inflation shows evidence of cooling. 

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Reviewing Crypto Quarterly – Vol. 2

Today’s edition is a review of Crypto from early April 2022. TGIF 2 Minutes will return with new content in early July! Read on for:

  • A high-level update & follow-up on cryptocurrencies
  • Brief comments on Inflation & 1st quarter 2022

Crypto Update

Continuing with the whirlwind of interest generated by “To Crypto Or Not To Crypto” and “Crypto Superbowl” there is more to say including highlighting the recent 36% decline in Bitcoin since November 2021. There is broad evidence that high-profile, fiduciary financial advisers are hesitant – for good reason – to include cryptocurrency across the board in client portfolios. At the same time, a good number of high-profile, responsible, fiduciary financial advisers are including cryptocurrency in some – emphasis, “some” – client portfolios, depending on the client’s goals and risk tolerance.**

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Looking Back On… Money & Therapy

Money and Therapy: two things that people may love or hate thinking about. However, among other things in life, money and therapy help. 

About five years ago I read a must-read book for young and old, wealthy, or building wealth, married or single. Anyone who wants to have a “life” someday… or even have a life NOW. The book is called The Number* and was written by Lee Eisenberg nearly 15 years ago but reads like he wrote it yesterday.

Here are several of the chapters:

  • “Welcome To Numberland”
  • “Debt Warp”
  • “Alone At Sea”
  • “Covering Your Assets” (nice play on words)
  • “Night Sweats”
  • “Deep Breathing”
  • “Bottom Lines”

All of these topics could be covered in conversations with friends, or by reading The Number, explored in a therapy session… or all 3! I recommend all three (and the therapy session could be with your financial adviser – because a real financial adviser makes this conversation mandatory.)

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Murphy’s Law & YOLO Can Be Expensive

One of the most critical factors of long-term personal financial success is… guess:

  • The markets
  • Spending
  • Interest rates
  • Stock selection
  • Income level

And the answer is…. SPENDING. This fact is why a truly competent financial planner will spend the most time on discussing spending, both today and future projected, along with GOALS. (Goals are what people spend money on.)

Holding an amount of cash – un-invested cash savings – is key to surviving Murphy’s Law events.

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Champagne & William Shatner

Last week William Shatner – at 90, who knew?! – became the oldest person to achieve space flight. Completion of a 10-minute journey on the reusable New Shephard rocket, including four minutes of weightlessness, was cause for major celebration immediately afterwards.

But notable was that upon disembarking from the space capsule Shatner politely turned down taking part in the champagne shower amongst the crew, Blue Origin promotional people and members of the press.

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A Couple of Quick Notes

This note would be even better in a short video…so stay tuned for that version next week! In the meantime, a couple of quick written notes:

This week the “Energy Information Administration,” an actual division of the US government, warned that nearly HALF of US households who heat their homes with natural gas will pay 30% MORE this year, yes 30%, versus last year.* AND that if winter is 10% colder, then bills will go up 50%! If winter is 10% warmer, then bills are still projected to go up 22%. Can’t wait for that cold weather!

Nearly HALF of US households who heat their homes with natural gas will pay 30% MORE this year.

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Murphy’s Law is Expensive

One of the most critical factors of long-term personal financial success is… guess:

  1. The markets
  2. Spending
  3. Interest rates
  4. Stock selection
  5. Income level

And the answer is… SPENDING. This fact is why a truly competent financial planner will spend the most time on discussing spending, both today and future projected, along with GOALS (Goals are what people spend money on).

Things can go wrong at any time, therefore, count on one or more things going badly wrong along the course of a person’s life and financial life.

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Here’s to the 2021 Graduates!

With inspiration from the Archives of TGIF 2 Minutes… and in light of graduation season, it can be beneficial to celebrate the basics of personal finance for future peace of mind – both for ourselves and the kids, grandkids, nieces, and nephews who mean the most to us. 

College graduation may have been a long, long time ago or more recently – and experienced from the perspective of a parent, grandparent, or friend.

Inspired by last weekend’s graduation at the University of Notre Dame and “graduation season” in general, consider these pieces of financial advice that hold meaning for nearly everyone at every age:

Some financial advice holds meaning for nearly everyone at every age, not just recent grads.
Photo by Emily Ranquist on Pexels.com

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Money, Therapy, and Life

From the Archives of 2016… updated for the “Coronavirus Life Experience”.

Money and Therapy. Two things that people may love or hate. However, among other things, money and therapy help.

Recently I finished a must-read book for all ages – wealthy or building wealth, married or single. Anyone who wants to have a “life” someday… or even have a life NOW. The book is called The Number* and was written in 2006 by Lee Eisenberg (long time editor-in-chief of Esquire magazine) but reads like he wrote it yesterday.

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The Biggest Winners

It is only fair that if there was an edition two weeks ago titled “Biggest Losers” there be an accompanying edition, “Biggest Winners.” Because there are A LOT of winners out there. But the financial and news media do not sell advertising talking about winners.

Here are the most obvious Winners, especially financially speaking:

Several of my clients and I painfully combed through their spending as part of the financial planning process. In most cases, these people came out with a greater awareness of who and what is most important to them.

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