Checking in on New Year’s Resolutions

It may be a key time – before mid-year – to check in on goals made back in January. These goals could have focused on saving more or differently, spending reduction or realignment and areas of investment focus and diversification.

How is your progress on certain goals? Can tweaks be made? Can specific ones be scrapped and new goals or ideas formed?

One particular goal from January was something I nicknamed FSP:

“Focus on Saving in order to maintain Patience” – in the event of the inevitable market decline, or volatility similar to that of 2025.

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The (Almost) Aftermath of Inflation

Inflation is not entirely gone yet. BUT – it could be worthwhile to try talking about it in the past tense and examine what enduring inflation has dealt – both negative and possibly positive – to spenders, savers and investors.

For one thing, inflation has gotten our attention! There is not one friend or client with whom I speak – those with money to burn and those with stricter budgets – who has not been shocked by food prices the past two and a half years. Are there any “silver linings” to this situation? What have been the worst consequences of inflation?

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The Markets Are UP

At this time of the year, clients and friends love asking the question, “What do you think of the markets?” Long ago, I learned not to answer with what I believe the markets will do – because no one knows for certain what the markets will do – but rather to respond with a handful of “data points” about what events are taking place currently and what near-future events truly figure in to investor expectations.

So far this year, markets are UP. To be exact, in the first 11 trading days of 2025 the markets have been up, down and then up. On balance markets are UP 1% to 1.5% year-to-date with small companies marginally leading the way. Small companies tend to be more volatile and react positively when there is perceived value in stock prices.

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Reining In the Amount Your Kids Spend

Let’s start by saying that it is nearly impossible to rein in the amount of money your kids spend. The caveat is that the impossible can become possible IF a few “standards” can be set – the earlier in life the better.

What are “standards”? These are concepts that can be discussed with kids of all ages – or dictated, with discussed definitely preferable! The concepts can be educational for the immediate time frame, while perhaps also becoming life lessons.

Case in point: three years ago, a young person asked for my advice upon graduating from college at age 22. This person, now 25 years-old, made my entire year last week when she told me that (over three years) she has accumulated $54,200. The kicker is that this awesome young person lives in one of the more expensive cities in the USA, which means income taxes are being paid at Federal, State and City levels.

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Lack of Clarity = Volatility

Markets prefer certainty. In times of relative economic certainty, market trends can be more defined and steadier. In times of economic uncertainty, markets react with volatility similar to the past 6 to 7 months. Two simple pieces of data:

  • The 10-year US Treasury yield was as high as 5.0% in late-October, then as low as 3.79% just after Christmas, then back up to 4.28% in March and very recently higher to 4.68% a mere few days ago. These levels – and the speed with which they have changed – represent fairly massive volatility based on historical 10-year US Treasury rates.
  • In the US stock markets, there has been similar volatility in both small-company indexes and the larger-company S&P 500 since last year with a noticeably weak 3Q 2023 and then all-time highs taking place just this past April 2024.

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“Stupid” Money Decisions

It is possible to go through life without making a stupid decision about money. Said no one ever. The truer statement might be: everyone reading today has at one time made a stupid decision about or with money. Most people have made multiple stupid decisions about money and much more. The important part (possibly after difficult pain or regret) is to be able to answer the question: what lessons were learned?

Two weeks ago, a famous Nobel Prize winning psychologist, who spent his life studying the human mind and decision-making, died. Daniel Kahneman reluctantly accepted the title “economist” as he and his long-time research partner, Amos Tversky, wrote an amazing, internationally best-selling book, Thinking, Fast and Slow. Together Kahneman and Tversky were pioneers in the field of behavioral psychology. Along the way, behavioral psychology was applied to all sorts of economic and investing decisions and the two psychologists were consulted by business leaders around the world. Here are a few of the questions the two men studied over decades, with a few of their answers: Continue reading ““Stupid” Money Decisions”

Teaching Inflation to Kids (& Adults)

From the archives of TGIF 2 Minutes – with updates, including perhaps why the US Federal Reserve is taking longer to start lowering interest rates…

“Mommy, Why are you buying our food at Walmart?”

…”Daddy, Why are we not eating my favorite fancy meals and brands of food?”

It is not quite Chef Boyardee and Ramen Noodles yet, but there is data reporting higher-end households shopping at lower-priced food stores (i.e. Walmart).* There is a lesson for kids and adults here. First a few more details.

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The Power of Human Capital

Continuing with the theme of “tax season time crunch” comes another 1-minute read. The in-depth 2-minute version of TGIF 2 Minutes will return soon.

Amidst tax season, questions can come to mind:

  • WHY do we work so hard to pay so much in taxes?
  • Why am I not on a beach somewhere getting “more” out of life?
  • What is the “right” balance or timing around working now/spending later or spending now/working later, especially in light of all the taxes we pay?

There are too many answers to these simple yet complex questions. Given the 1-minute time frame of this Friday morning read, simplicity rules. Please consider the concept of human capital in order to apply a common aspect to all three questions above.

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The Champagne Spray

On the lighter side of matters…. and please CLICK THE TINY ARROW BELOW.

Champagne & William Shatner from Kerrie Debbs on Vimeo.

Back in 2021, William Shatner – at 90, who knew?! – became the oldest person to achieve space flight. Completion of a 10-minute journey on the reusable New Shephard rocket, including four minutes of weightlessness, was cause for a major celebration immediately afterwards. But notable was that upon disembarking from the space capsule Shatner politely turned down taking part in the champagne spray shower amongst the crew, Blue Origin promotional people and members of the press.

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YOLO Counts for Something

A brief personal reflection this week but meant to factor in to short-term and long-term personal and family financial planning.

In the past week I was given sad news of the sudden and far-too-soon passing of not one but two old friends. Both were in the prime of their lives with spouses and young children, working and doing good in their families, workplaces, communities, and faiths. Certainly, the last thing on my mind was writing a TGIF 2 Minutes edition about these two people.

But upon further reflection on their lives, it was too compelling not to make a statement about YOLO, or You Only Live Once, and the spending on the YOLO category. I am not certain, but it is likely that these two people lived full lives with few if any regrets. In this light, there is a strong case to be made to figuring YOLO into a budget.

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