Record-breaking, big outlier events tend to move the needle the most in the economy and stock market.* Note the word, “outlier.” Outlier events typically are surprises and are indeed unlikely. In his beyond excellent book The Psychology of Money author Morgan Housel lists five events that were outliers with world-changing consequences:
The Great Depression
World War II
The dot-com bubble
The housing crash of the mid-2000’s.
A conclusion could be drawn from the book’s chapter titled, “Surprise!” that surprises are perhaps the most reliable thing going. But the irony of the reliability of surprises is we do not know what the surprise is until after it has unfolded.
Last week William Shatner – at 90, who knew?! – became the oldest person to achieve space flight. Completion of a 10-minute journey on the reusable New Shephard rocket, including four minutes of weightlessness, was cause for major celebration immediately afterwards.
But notable was that upon disembarking from the space capsule Shatner politely turned down taking part in the champagne shower amongst the crew, Blue Origin promotional people and members of the press.
Retirement? What do you mean, Retirement?! That is in the waaay distant future, you may say.
Well the lock down, shelter in place, husbands and wives/girlfriends and boyfriends/parents and kids working from home TOGETHER is just that: a warm-up for retirement. Or a forced “retirement together” for those already retired.
Excerpts from the February 2018 Archives of TGIF 2 Minutes…
“Let the good times roll.” I am partial to this expression because my Dad used to say it a lot either as a toast or statement when things were going well. Looking overall at the last few years’ markets, current economy and lives and businesses of clients, the expression definitely applies.
But of course, there will always be something to worry about. Always.
How long will these positive markets last?
Will my portfolio continue to gain in value? How can I best preserve all this wealth I have created?
How long will these economic and business conditions continue to contribute to my personal and business success?
Will the risks I have taken in the past few years (that have paid off) continue to yield positive results?
Last week’s topic was taxes. This week I’ll talk about luck, which can matter nearly as much to our financial lives. Taxes and luck can go hand in hand – with planning being the link.
The following are highlights from TGIF 2 Minutes one year ago entitled, “The Luck Factor“ otherwise known as “Sequence of Returns.”
Despite all of the calculations involved in investing, there is still an element of luck involved. A specific term for this luck is, “Sequence of Returns.” Otherwise known as risk of timing, which can be the #1 most important concept if you ever wish to spend your savings – and have them last as long as you need.