US Treasury Debt

A VERY short TGIF 2 Minutes today.

Recent news features the danger of the United States defaulting on its Treasury debt. Longer story short, the US Treasury is very, very, very, very unlikely to default, and “cooler minds” would be educating the American public about why this is the case. The explanation is beyond the scope of TGIF 2 Minutes. (Please note that none of the following is a political statement or meant to be.)

Of course, there are plenty of reasons why the US finds itself, once again, in this position. The last time it was this serious was in 2011 when Barack Obama was President. Then came the coronavirus in 2019 and responses by Presidents Trump and Biden. Entitlements and social program spending, along with eventually replenishing US defense spending, became and are still beyond expensive. As The Wall Street Journal notes, “…U.S. debt held by the public is now about 100% of GDP, up from 39.2% as recently as 2008 and 77.6% in 2018” and “…The cost of financing that debt is rising fast along with interest rates, and interest on the debt will take up an increasingly large share of federal revenue. Priorities… will be squeezed.”*

The country is witnessing a high stakes political fight that will likely play out over the next five months and feature the Republicans and Democrats in the US House of Representatives negotiating and attempting to call “chicken” on who gives in first, with trillions of dollars in the offing. The primary matters at hand are the government’s overdue and needed discipline on its spending cap – and determining how much debt is manageable for the country over the short- and long-term. The next generation of Americans, among others,is who should be watching most closely.

*WSJ.com, Editorial Board; 1/16/2023.

Will Social Security Be There?

Here starts a mini-series of TGIF 2 Minutes editions.

The following is taken directly from the current Social Security website. The italics below are copied from the website and presumably are meant for emphasis. Underlines are mine.

The concepts of solvency, sustainability, and budget impact are common in discussions of Social Security but are not well understood. Currently, the Social Security Board of Trustees projects program cost to rise by 2035 so that taxes will be enough to pay for only 75 percent of scheduled benefits. This increase in cost results from population aging, not because we are living longer, but because birth rates dropped from three to two children per woman. Importantly, this shortfall is basically stable after 2035; adjustments to taxes or benefits that offset the effects of the lower birth rate may restore solvency for the Social Security program on a sustainable basis for the foreseeable future. Finally, as Treasury debt securities (trust fund assets) are redeemed in the future, they will just be replaced with public debt. If trust fund assets are exhausted without reform, benefits will necessarily be lowered with no effect on budget deficits.

Continue reading “Will Social Security Be There?”

10 Things NOT Talked About at Thanksgiving

We all know the “Basic 3” topics NOT recommended for talk around the Thanksgiving table: Sex, Politics and Religion. Two others on the list are Money and various Family Matters.  The gloves can tend to come off, feelings hurt and more.

Touchdown-Jesus

But there are times when several of these topics must be addressed – keeping in mind that “there is a time and place for everything”.  So, in that vein, here is a list of at least 10 topics that were most likely NOT discussed at Thanksgiving but that may be important and remain on lots of peoples’ minds: Continue reading “10 Things NOT Talked About at Thanksgiving”