Kerrie (Wagner) Debbs

The Mega-Cap 7 or 8

There is a narrowness to the US stock market’s “strength” so far in 2023 that warrants attention. Out of the five hundred US companies in the S&P 500 index, if not for seven of them (or eight, if Netflix is included) the index would be down for the year.

These seven or eight companies are all mega-capitalization technology companies: Nvidia (whose chips are currently fueling white-hot artificial intelligence), Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta (formerly Facebook), Alphabet (parent of Google), Tesla, and the 8th is Netflix (arguably as large and hot as the rest).

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Why Save & Invest?

The question, “Why save and invest?” is one not emphasized nearly enough. Often, savers and investors – whether having accumulated millions of dollars or those just getting started – focus almost exclusively on the various investments themselves, without first and often taking a step back to establish the “WHY” of investing.

The WHY can vary greatly, which is the reason the question is so meaningful.

Just this week I heard about the show currently on Netflix called “How to Get Rich” (haha, I may have just lost a few readers who will jump to find out more about the show). But it is not the show that is the focus of this week’s edition of TGIF 2 Minutes but rather one of the ideas behind the show. The idea comes from the author and successful entrepreneur, Ramit Sethi. One of the key ideas Sethi emphasizes is the “rich life” we all may wish to attain.

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Debt Ceiling- Enough is Enough

Amidst the irresponsible media blitz of US debt default talk is a handful of constructive, truthful information. Delving into only a portion of this available information reveals what is really going on and what could be happening if the two octogenarians in charge would finally end their two-year-long overage of spending (it is obvious who the octogenarians are, and one is late in her 8th decade if not 80 yet).

One tool that could be used immediately to address the continued paydown of US Treasury principal and interest is that of “rolling over” maturing US Treasury obligations by issuing new debt to pay off old debt. According to legal sources who have advised recent administrations of both major political parties, this type of debt paydown could even lower the amount of outstanding government debt subject to the “statutory limits” that would constitute exceeding the debt limit. This plan was established by the US Treasury back in 2011 when the last major showdown on the debt limit occurred.

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Markets & Taming Inflation

Believe it or not, the following is taken from October 2022 (with a couple of updates). Inflation almost always takes longer to tame than we think.

A question that may be on a number of people’s minds is: How long will it take to tame inflation? Unfortunately, there is very little telling how long it will take the US Federal Reserve, or any other entity or force, to tame inflation, especially in the short-term. Part of the reason is because inflation is always part of a complicated economy – with diverse people, businesses and governmental/fiscal forces in action. Timing (and hard-landing/soft-landing) predictions about inflation are nearly impossible.

Video: TGIF – Markets & Taming Inflation

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US Debt Ceiling

Currently the limit on the amount the US government can borrow is a mind-boggling $31.4 trillion. This limit was reached this past January and since then the US Treasury has been using “extraordinary measures” to continue to pay government bills. Funds from these measures, such as using available tax revenue or borrowing from the retirement accounts of federal workers (not allowed by private employers), are said to become exhausted by about June 1st or so.

The government borrows (or issues debt) because it spends more than it takes in via tax revenue. These borrowed funds are used to pay government workers, but for numerous other critical reasons including:

continuous payments to Social Security recipients
reimbursement to doctors for Medicare
salaries for US Military and military contractors
payments on existing US Treasury debt

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I-Bond Update

For a bond that must be held for a minimum of five (5) years for full interest to be received and can only be bought in amounts of $10,000 per year, I get a lot of questions.

To put the situation in perspective, for clients and friends with high levels of income, in the hundreds of thousands and much more, and high tax rates – marginal rates of over 32% – the interest at stake with an I-Bond is currently $600 to $800 per year and that is before taxes! That level of net interest may pay a portion of one car lease payment per year or weekend gas for a boat (in 5 years). BUT nevertheless, I get questions.

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Crypto Quarterly – 1Q 2023

It turns out that summarizing the current status of cryptocurrency following the past several months is much more complicated than it looks. If one event were highlighted, it would be the November 2022 fall of FTX and arrest of its founder who was “popularly” referred to by his three initials, SBF.

As early as February 2022 during the “Crypto Bowl”, or Superbowl LVI, there were clues of cryptocurrency irrational exuberance. Since then, major cracks have revealed themselves in the crypto industry and beyond.

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Crypto Quarterly 1Q ’23 – Stay Tuned

TGIF 2 Minutes – Crypto Quarterly for 1st Quarter 2023 will take a bit longer than previous editions. For perspective, consider several details from the December 2022 edition which concluded that cryptocurrency is not dead but on serious life support:

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Failure of a Bank

Quick trivia: Who is famous for the saying, “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked”?? Ironically just last week Warren Buffett’s 58th annual “Letter to Shareholders” was reviewed by TGIF 2 Minutes, and, yes, Warren E. Buffett first famously uttered these words back in 1992.

The timing of his utterance was, as CEO of the insurance conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, just following Hurricane Andrew when the inadequacies of the insurance industry were negatively exposed. Buffett was describing “the rosy appearances that can mask financial recklessness until the good times end.”*

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Warren Buffett Wisdom 2023

Warren Buffett, the world’s 4th or 5th richest person, famously writes a Letter to Shareholders each year published around the end of February and featured in May at his annual meeting for shareholders on a farm in Omaha, Nebraska. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, has an amazing long-term record of rewarding long-term shareholders. Buffett is now 92½ years old and nearing his 60th annual go-around with the meeting and shareholder letter.

The letter has a mild cult following and is read by seasoned, experienced investors; younger, newer investors; company CEOs; and anyone who has a few extra minutes for down-to-earth reflections from a billionaire. This year’s letter was far shorter than past years – and thus to the point. Here are a few of the highlights:

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