Getting Paid to Take Risk

In true TGIF 2 Minutes fashion, a short note today – with further thoughts to follow.

A week ago, I had the distinct honor to set foot onto “Omaha Beach” in Normandy, France to recognize the 80th anniversary of the Allied Troops storming that beach on June 6, 1944, in the name of (future) freedom – and potential success – for multiple generations of free people around the world. The experience and the trip surrounding the experience left an impression that will not soon wear off.

Les Braves Omaha Beach Memorial on the Beach in Saint-Laurent-sur-Mer, France.

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10th Anniversary Edition!!

Hooray! TGIF 2 Minutes has entered its 11th year! It has been an absolute joy to hear from readers over the past 10 years and be part of your Friday morning cup of coffee or weekend reading time. For kicks, below is an excerpt from the very first edition in May 2014:

Good morning and TGIF,

In my efforts to give you Short & Sweet messages that make a POSITIVE difference in your LIFE, I am starting a “TGIF 2 minutes”. It will not be every Friday but when there’s something to say, it will be on Friday when you may have an extra 2 minutes in your day- or weekend- to read it. It will be worth reading! Please let me know your thoughts.

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Lack of Clarity = Volatility

Markets prefer certainty. In times of relative economic certainty, market trends can be more defined and steadier. In times of economic uncertainty, markets react with volatility similar to the past 6 to 7 months. Two simple pieces of data:

  • The 10-year US Treasury yield was as high as 5.0% in late-October, then as low as 3.79% just after Christmas, then back up to 4.28% in March and very recently higher to 4.68% a mere few days ago. These levels – and the speed with which they have changed – represent fairly massive volatility based on historical 10-year US Treasury rates.
  • In the US stock markets, there has been similar volatility in both small-company indexes and the larger-company S&P 500 since last year with a noticeably weak 3Q 2023 and then all-time highs taking place just this past April 2024.

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“Stupid” Money Decisions

It is possible to go through life without making a stupid decision about money. Said no one ever. The truer statement might be: everyone reading today has at one time made a stupid decision about or with money. Most people have made multiple stupid decisions about money and much more. The important part (possibly after difficult pain or regret) is to be able to answer the question: what lessons were learned?

Two weeks ago, a famous Nobel Prize winning psychologist, who spent his life studying the human mind and decision-making, died. Daniel Kahneman reluctantly accepted the title “economist” as he and his long-time research partner, Amos Tversky, wrote an amazing, internationally best-selling book, Thinking, Fast and Slow. Together Kahneman and Tversky were pioneers in the field of behavioral psychology. Along the way, behavioral psychology was applied to all sorts of economic and investing decisions and the two psychologists were consulted by business leaders around the world. Here are a few of the questions the two men studied over decades, with a few of their answers: Continue reading ““Stupid” Money Decisions”

Inflation vs. Interest Rates Stand-Off

If the “land the inflation airplane” graphic (originally pictured in October 2022) indicated a US Federal Reserve trying to “land” inflation, then the current graphic would look like a slowly unfolding aborted airplane landing.

To summarize, prices of a number of key consumer items are NOT coming down fast enough to lower inflation in a meaningful way – even if the media has convinced Americans that $5 or $7 for a dozen eggs is “a relief”.

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Teaching Inflation to Kids (& Adults)

From the archives of TGIF 2 Minutes – with updates, including perhaps why the US Federal Reserve is taking longer to start lowering interest rates…

“Mommy, Why are you buying our food at Walmart?”

…”Daddy, Why are we not eating my favorite fancy meals and brands of food?”

It is not quite Chef Boyardee and Ramen Noodles yet, but there is data reporting higher-end households shopping at lower-priced food stores (i.e. Walmart).* There is a lesson for kids and adults here. First a few more details.

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The Champagne Spray

On the lighter side of matters…. and please CLICK THE TINY ARROW BELOW.

Champagne & William Shatner from Kerrie Debbs on Vimeo.

Back in 2021, William Shatner – at 90, who knew?! – became the oldest person to achieve space flight. Completion of a 10-minute journey on the reusable New Shephard rocket, including four minutes of weightlessness, was cause for a major celebration immediately afterwards. But notable was that upon disembarking from the space capsule Shatner politely turned down taking part in the champagne spray shower amongst the crew, Blue Origin promotional people and members of the press.

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Border Security (not what you think)

Nearly every American is aware of the lack of security at the US-Mexico border. The toxic politics around that issue make it front page news nearly every day and evening. But the other border – that of the border protection around your sensitive personal information – can be just as vulnerable.

Yes, yesterday’s TGIF 2 Minutes covered this issue. But the issue is so serious, it requires a follow-up, with practical examples and then a handful of steps readers can research or choose to take.

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Safety Check of Sensitive Information, Part 1

If the safety of your personal information is not currently at the top of your radar screen, please move it up to the top TODAY. Why? Because there are really bad actors lurking for over one or two decades – in the background of email, credit agencies, and whatever cyber universes exist – and these bad actors are both patient and aggressive about seeking to compromise your identity and financial transactions.

This is not new. In 2017, Equifax, one of the world’s largest credit reporting and monitoring agencies with sensitive data for over 800 million individual consumers, was hacked. Private information of over 147 million American citizens along with British and Canadian citizens were compromised in a security breach. This from a leading company whose entire purpose is monitoring the most sensitive of personal information.

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Interest Rates, The Fed & Gray Hair

Time again for the “soft landing” airplane drawing. As in, will there be a soft landing for the US economy or a hard landing? How soon might the US Fed lower rates and how fast might the markets keep going up or falter down?

A certain amount of gray hair (read: wisdom and experience) helps in understanding the current interest rate and US Federal Reserve environment. Why? Because economies do not move as fast as Amazon delivering a package same-day, or even same-month. And “gray hairs” know this.

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