Category: Life

Answers to Year-End 2022 Questions

Year-End 2022 may be leaving us with more questions than answers. In addition to a prior posted list of questions, here are more:

  • Will interest rates continue to increase?
  • Will the US officially enter a recession? If so, how bad, and how long will it be?
  • Will there be more bankruptcies related to cryptocurrencies and trading?
  • What will become of the unbalanced employment situation?

The list can go on and on. For as long as most experienced investors reading this post can recall, there have always been questions that economists (similar to the weatherman/woman) attempt to answer. Readers and investors who are newer or younger can learn over time that questions regarding the economy and government/fiscal policy are what make markets operate. Everyone is entitled to her or his opinion, especially in investing:

silhouette of trees under fireworks
Photo by Zeepictures on Pexels.com

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Stay Tuned for Year-End Commentary

As Christmas and Year-End 2022 approach there is a long list of topics to consider, including:

  • How to quantify the first truly down year for the markets since 2009
  • What inflation and higher interest rates mean going forward in 2023
  • How to approach higher taxes for those still working and those receiving Social Security
  • The timeless investing paradigms that have not changed
  • How much to diversify a portfolio while still paying attention to risk and liquidity
  • How to approach Long-Term Care decisions, both present and future
  • Changes made to gifting limits for 2023 (limits increased)
  • Changes made to IRA and 401k contribution limits in 2023 (limits increased)
  • What is next for cryptocurrency trading and valuation
  • What to serve for the Holiday meal (perhaps the most urgent item on the list).

What topics might be on your mind? Stay tuned for a Year-End commentary!

Thank you for reading, enjoy last minute shopping and TGIF!

TGIF 2 Minutes – Crypto Quarterly, vol. 4

Crypto is, of course, not dead. But the world of cryptocurrency could be considered seriously injured. Here are a few stats from 2022:

  • Bitcoin, on fire in 2021, has seen its price drop over 75% from its record high. Since only May 2022, Bitcoin’s value is down by half.
  • Coinbase, the first publicly listed and largest US cryptocurrency exchange, has seen its stock drop 80% from the time of its listing.

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Beware of Money Scams

Just in the past week, two friends notified me they had been party to a money scam or potential money-related email hack. Going back further in time, there are numerous instances where a client or friend has made it known they were, regrettably, on the losing side of a money-related scam.

Look no further than this week’s news on a larger scale: due to recent, repeated money-request scams via the online payments network Zelle, major banks and financial institutions including JP Morgan, Bank of America, Capital One, and PNC Financial announced talks to reimburse scammed Zelle customers (Zelle is an online payments network in which various major banks participate).

All of these events prove that money-related scams are no longer isolated incidents.

Even intelligent people can accidentally find themselves in the midst of these gift card scams or urgent calls for money from what seems to be the IRS, the FTC (Federal Trade Commission), or Social Security.

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An Early Thanksgiving 2022 Thought

In a year that has been difficult in the markets and anything but predictable, there are still lots of bright spots and things for which to be thankful. In that vein it may make sense – before the Thanksgiving holiday – to dedicate extra time to giving ourselves credit for:

  • goals in process
  • progress made
  • the people who made progress possible (family, friends, colleagues)
  • successes despite inevitable failures
  • the ability to have overcome tragedy or failures
  • being able to make new future goals as a result of past failures and successes.

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Hurricane Season

Hurricanes can come in various forms. Whether they be the recent Ian and Nicole or the staggering Sandy of 2012 they tend to strike in the fall season. Also, in the fall come U.S. elections and historically a bit of stock market volatility. Like the weather, markets are anything but predictable. Elections can lend themselves to predictability but there are always surprises too.

This year has had a mix of all these factors. Currently amidst high inflation the stock and bond markets are trying to digest an environment of much higher and increasing interest rates – exactly how much higher is an unknown. Also unknown is the post-election reality of future policy making in Washington, DC. Interest rates are “driving the economic bus” for the time being, and government policy making will be an ongoing force running alongside. Both will affect the markets in positive and negative ways over time.

Getting through hurricane season can be a relief – but only if it is known that the storm is over. Is the storm over or getting close to being over, and where does all this leave investors and savers?

Getting through hurricane season can be a relief – but only if it is known that the storm is over. Is the storm over or getting close to being over, and where does all this leave investors and savers?

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Financial Advice & Family

The subject of family can apply to various aspects of financial planning. And although sensitive, there could be an entire TGIF 2 Minutes series on family and personal finance. On a positive note, and more specifically for this week’s edition: I hear often from financially comfortable – and confident – clients and friends about basic, treasured personal financial advice they received from a family member – most going back 20, 30, even 40 or more years ago!

Mixing family and money can get sensitive quickly. But over years of observing, there have been far more positives than negatives for those who were willing to step back, look at the bigger picture and accept solid, basic advice. Humility was involved. Patience is necessary. These are not my opinions but rather real pieces of feedback from people who are grateful they took certain, basic advice from a wise family member at some point earlier in life.

Financial advice from a wise Mom, Dad, Grandma, “Uncle Pete” or “Aunt Claire” can make a lifetime of difference.

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Mortgage & Housing Costs

A cautionary note (please pardon the math on a Friday) on home prices and home mortgage affordability in the short- to intermediate-term future. This note can also be useful for those with HELOC loans, or home equity lines of credit, with floating interest rates.

Inflation has recently had an overlooked side effect: a decline in the amount of home that a given monthly mortgage payment buys. The obvious factor is that interest rates on 30-year mortgages have skyrocketed from around 3% about 10 months ago to over 7% today. (Note, there is a sound but painful reason for interest rates to have risen. Historically, higher interest rates are one of the most proven ways to gradually – emphasize, “gradually” – control inflation or slow down an over-heated economy).

In buying a house using a mortgage, the situation turns into kind of a “seesaw” between the amount put down and how that amount translates into the monthly payment. 

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Making the Best of Down Markets

There is no sugar-coating it: investors in 2022 have experienced the biggest – and longest – down year for stock and bond markets since the 2007-2008 financial crisis. One of the only consolations is that over the past 13 years there have been tremendous gains overall, still with a few bumps along the way. Below I outline a few more consolations, or ways to make the best of down markets.

First a quick note: For newer, younger investors it may be difficult to not yet see long-term gains having accumulated in portfolios. Know that time horizon and future earnings potential are two huge positives working in your favor.

Here are a handful of ways to make the best of down markets – and to take advantage of higher interest rates (hint: there are more positives around higher interest rates than the media lets on).

For savers with healthy balances in pre-tax 401k and IRA accounts, use the opportunity to convert pre-tax IRA monies to Roth IRA monies.

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How Long Will It Take To Tame Inflation?

A question that may be on a number of people’s minds is: How long will it take to tame inflation? Unfortunately, there is very little telling how long it will take the US Federal Reserve, or any other entity or force, to tame inflation especially with respect to the short-term. Part of the reason is because inflation is always part of a complicated economy – an economy with diverse people, businesses, and governmental/fiscal forces in action. Making timing (and hard landing/soft-landing) predictions about inflation is nearly impossible.

To add to the confusion, believe it or not emotions – specifically people’s expectations of inflation – are part of what keeps inflation around. In this inflationary cycle, inflation has stuck around longer than at almost any time in US history; long enough to increase people’s expectations that inflation will not go away quickly. The US Fed had stated one of its original intentions was to lower consumers’ inflationary expectations (but the Fed may have missed this boat due to forces out of its control, namely, the pandemic aftermath).

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