Spooktacular Investing Times

It is Halloween, so with an intended pun it must be said: spooktacular times in markets and the economy continue. 

AI (Artificial Intelligence) is simultaneously spooky and spectacular. Nvidia, this week, reached a new milestone surpassing all other US companies with a $5 trillion market valuation. Nvidia’s market cap is now larger than the largest semiconductor companies AMD, Arm Holdings, ASML, Broadcom, Intel, Lam Research, Micron Technology, Qualcomm and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing combined.*

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Recession or Head Fake?

With the Federal Reserve’s action this week in cutting interests rates by one quarter of one percent, the word “recession” is back in the news as a possibility. There must be literally nothing else financially speaking to talk about. In the meantime, check out two really good slides.

The first slide (above) outlines the vast difference of:

  • when a recession really occurs in the economy
  • when markets anticipate the recession and react
  • versus when the government (the NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research) “declares” a recession.

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Year-End Tax Planning 2025

The countdown to year-end will begin soon. With nearly four (4) months remaining in 2025, consider the following Year-End Tax Planning Checklist.*  Several of these items, if addressed now, could make a meaningful difference come tax filing season AND add to savings.

  1. How are you doing on maxing out your 401k? Many people do not know they can temporarily increase their 401k contributions through December 31st to reach the $23,500 maximum contribution (higher max for those age 50, and even higher for those age 60-63).
        • Lots of 401k or 403b plans allow participants to contribute 25-30% of pay – or even 100% of pay (100% can be a temporary measure in order to max out for 2025).
        • These 401k contributions can be tax-deductible, unless you are contributing to a Roth 401k. It is not too late!

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Concierge Medical Services

This will be a short TGIF 2 Minutes …on a topic that could take much, much, much longer and can be very, very, very expensive. The topic is healthcare and doctor selection and coverage.

The word, “selection”, is used for a reason. Selecting a Medical Doctor used to be fairly easy. Now, there are less Medical Doctors to go around, they are more expensive, and it seems all the best Medical Doctors have closed their practices. There is a myriad of reasons – beyond the scope of this discussion. Perhaps one of the reasons is outlined below under “concierge medical services”.

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“Dog” Days of Late Summer

“Man’s or Woman’s Best Friend”. At a time when true friends have proven to be more valuable than ever, it seems getting a dog is something a good number of people and families do. Long-time dog lovers seem to agree that dogs can bring true happiness to unbearable situations. The saying, “if you want a friend, get a dog” has been around for years, even in the movies. “Dog benefits” range from personal joy to family togetherness…with a good deal of responsibility mixed in.

While a dog can turn out to become a true best friend, the “getting a dog” decision is a BIG one and not to be taken lightly. Considerations are several:

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Shrinkflation & Jackson Hole

Today is a day that has become quietly (or not so quietly) famous in market and global economic circles. Today is the Friday of the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium held in the city of same name in Wyoming since 1978. The “summit” is organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and gathers central bankers, economists and policy makers from around the world. Friday at Jackson Hole has evolved to become an occasion when the US Federal Reserve Chairman serves up his or her keynote speech.

One key topic of the speech will be inflation: is inflation still around and how to contain it. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will probably not mention shrinkflation but he will mention inflation.

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Knock, Knock (No Joke)

Compliments to one of my colleagues for highlighting this disturbing trend – under the heading, “this could never happen to me”:

Apparently, there is a new trend emerging in the ever-evolving landscape of fraud. In this case, fraudsters are showing up at victims’ homes or arranging in-person meetings with the aim of collecting physical cash, gold bars or other valuables. This in-person, “show up at the door” version of fraud is a significant shift from digital scams – where the victim’s financial and other assets and data are at risk – to a scenario in which the victims could end up in imminent danger of physical harm.

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The Economics of a Hole In One

Despite holding an MBA in finance and the CFP certification, the “economics” of a Hole in One are over my head. It is summer, so the topic is relevant – and there have been one or more Holes in One per month for the last year at my golf club. Even pickle-ballers can sound in on this one.

A Hole in One for a golfer – from professional to putt-putt – is a big deal! On a regulation golf course, public or private, there are actual (unwritten but established) rules around the accomplishment ranging from:

  • Tradition since the beginning of time holding that the person scoring the “ace” buys everyone in the clubhouse a cocktail or drink.
  • Local members of golf clubs and friends are known to have driven from home to participate in the “free drink” celebration. (Hold the thought: “free drink”).

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TGIF Meets OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) Inbox

The One Big Beautiful Bill, now OBBB Act, was…. big. TGIF 2 Minutes is all about giving as complete and concise a message as possible. There will be follow-ups to the OBBBA, and as one analyst concluded, the “2026 Surprise” will come with “patches” to various wordings and actual applications of parts of the OBBBA, similar to the Secure Act – in particular referencing “patches” that came over time to the Secure Act for required minimum distributions from Inherited IRAs.

The OBBBA is far too BIG to be summarized by any one person. Although several nuggets can be highlighted, followed up by more highlights and so on. Here are a handful of major topics, with brief explanations. These are meant to spur questions and conversations that are relevant and unique to each client and each person.* Also, important – please keep in mind that due to the relatively higher wealth and income of most folks reading today, income phase-outs of lots of these provisions make a number of them less impactful (perhaps a “quality problem” to have?).

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Critical Mid-Year Tax-Related Ideas

Mid-Year is an important time to review several significant saving and spending decisions, possibly affecting taxes too. With just under 6 months remaining in the tax year – there’s still time to make a meaningful difference. Consider:

  • Confirming amounts being deferred pre- or post-tax into 401k and other retirement accounts (and whether to max out?)
  • Evaluating savings goals versus reality
  • If not begun yet, giving savings goals a jump start
  • Quantifying college savings account contributions
  • Creating and funding Trusts

These and other important decisions can be evaluated or adjusted – think of the process as forming goals or “mini-goals”.

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