Check out two really good slides.
The first slide outlines the vast difference of when a recession really occurs and markets anticipate the recession and react, versus when the government (the NBER, National Bureau of Economic Research) “declares” a recession.
It is time again for “the Greatest Chart Ever”.* And to extend the expression, often “the greatest” takes a while to develop.
The current situation that may take a while is tariff policy by the US with respect to trading partners. Tariffs are in effect for barely one week. Markets in short order have punished stock prices and caused heavy volatility in US Treasuries. Most of the volatility is due to uncertainty on a large scale about how and how much tariffs will affect availability, demand and end prices for consumer and industrial goods globally. That is a massive amount of goods and only time will tell. Stock markets do not like uncertainty – even if the eventual goal is to make a positive difference.
Please see the simple graphics and detail above for reasons why a globally diversified portfolio has outperformed despite recent (and in several cases, major) declines in the “Magnificent 7”. The article sites three charts. TGIF 2 Minutes chose two of the three.
In addition to these data points, there are still more reasons to keep faith in a well-laid out long-term strategy that takes into account more than solely the large growth area of the stock market.
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, tax, legal or accounting advice.
Inflation is not entirely gone yet. BUT – it could be worthwhile to try talking about it in the past tense and examine what enduring inflation has dealt – both negative and possibly positive – to spenders, savers and investors.
For one thing, inflation has gotten our attention! There is not one friend or client with whom I speak – those with money to burn and those with stricter budgets – who has not been shocked by food prices the past two and a half years. Are there any “silver linings” to this situation? What have been the worst consequences of inflation?
Part of me needs to admit that today’s title was an attention grabber. The deeper questions are:
This may be the last weekend we can say, “Happy New Year!” to friends. And a fairly happy new year it has been for the markets… with a few bumps here and there. The “bump” was a mini-cavernous plunge for shares of Nvidia shares, down 15% in one day without a rebound. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (tech focused index) promptly rebounded.
However, there may have been a few investors, especially those newer to the markets or those less patient among us, who need a “gut check” when markets get rocky. Here are a handful of questions investors can ask themselves, in order to stay put with current investments in down and seriously down markets – providing a plan is already in place:
Continue reading “Rocky (But Good) Start to the Year… PS. “Alts””
We have all been there. Whether it is not getting the promotion or appointment to the C-suite, not hitting the jackpot with a start-up company investment or hedge fund or not reaching a savings goal in order to buy a fancy new car or retire by a certain year. We miss winning our own, personal “national championship”.
The keys to recovery are resilience and focus (2 weeks ago’s TGIF 2 Minutes talked about focus, as well). In Atlanta this past Monday, resilience and focus were on display in the CFP National Football Championship between Notre Dame and Ohio State, as well as an economic mismatch… but more about the economic mismatches of college sports in another edition.
As for resilience and focus, these two concepts figure heavily into personal finance, saving and investing.
Continue reading “When You Don’t Win A National Championship”
At this time of the year, clients and friends love asking the question, “What do you think of the markets?” Long ago, I learned not to answer with what I believe the markets will do – because no one knows for certain what the markets will do – but rather to respond with a handful of “data points” about what events are taking place currently and what near-future events truly figure in to investor expectations.
So far this year, markets are UP. To be exact, in the first 11 trading days of 2025 the markets have been up, down and then up. On balance markets are UP 1% to 1.5% year-to-date with small companies marginally leading the way. Small companies tend to be more volatile and react positively when there is perceived value in stock prices.
Anything could have happened in 2024. The uncertainties were immense:
The results – to date – in several of these categories have been positive or on-the-way-to-becoming-positive.
Today’s edition could be a risky one to write, as anything related to the recent US Presidential election can stir up division. BUT – there are a healthy handful of issues that unite all Americans. These issues, ironically, are similar to those facing the 2016 version of President-Elect Trump.
Below are excerpts (in italics) from a November 2016 edition of TGIF 2 Minutes with thoughts on updates for 2024 (in bold) –
Continue reading “Top of Mind Issues in US Presidential Transition”
